Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 29.137338 32.412220 36.160544 40.830187 46.583333 53.569353 62.910002
2025-06-08 24.231323 28.308861 33.397248 40.427411 50.276613 64.293709 87.378010
2025-06-15 21.142072 25.527393 31.338252 40.007285 53.477980 75.582495 120.846171
2025-06-22 19.091037 23.629053 29.926385 39.923630 56.916582 88.860472 172.407172
2025-06-29 17.419982 21.954031 28.465482 39.311619 59.152308 101.271698 244.317475
2025-07-06 16.713092 21.507985 28.677649 41.342692 66.822736 131.213223 486.214991
2025-07-13 15.608746 20.335849 27.576980 40.842080 69.241562 150.675988 887.797324
2025-07-20 14.818258 19.543025 26.957877 41.058929 73.335183 180.789070 2741.191227
2025-07-27 14.163489 18.888309 26.470393 41.408323 77.937555 221.300217 NaN
2025-08-03 13.498622 18.155784 25.759395 41.164934 80.950547 262.627516 NaN
2025-08-10 12.899225 17.478058 25.067153 40.830435 83.638271 311.925210 NaN
2025-08-17 12.439991 16.990469 24.656954 41.025448 88.119036 395.412657 NaN
2025-08-24 11.944191 16.420923 24.066565 40.775850 91.354651 496.310137 NaN
2025-08-31 11.484904 15.883467 23.489088 40.472567 94.435583 636.680178 NaN
2025-09-07 11.056819 15.371496 22.914190 40.085854 97.156071 832.688908 NaN
2025-09-14 10.701911 14.961402 22.495786 40.013922 101.262290 1215.935699 NaN
2025-09-21 10.317503 14.478761 21.898713 39.403752 102.853735 1675.288598 NaN
2025-09-28 10.236407 14.512384 22.304868 41.444376 118.479163 10533.108982 NaN
2025-10-05 9.910279 14.098685 21.788530 40.942284 121.041657 103348.205249 NaN
2025-10-12 9.674147 13.831357 21.546334 41.160204 128.068547 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.465159 13.600981 21.360788 41.511090 136.546398 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 9.218885 13.291626 20.989228 41.266732 141.187297 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.980424 12.985776 20.604687 40.930881 145.166724 NaN NaN